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| thoughts and observations |
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WEEK FIVE REVIEW
Here's what kills me after viewing week five. Last week, all the analysts were talking about this being a different year. Parity was no longer parity. There were too many down teams. Five winless teams. Five teams with one win. The span between the good and the bad was much greater. After another week, they're already talking about the parity issue again. It changes quick, eh? That's what happens when a week turns half the league's teams to 3-2, 2-2 or 2-3. Winless teams down to three.
Don't buy into it. I've never been a fan of the parity schpeil. Good teams will rise to the top. Then, there will be several 7-9, 8-8 and 9-7 teams. Then, there will be the bottom dwellers. Isn't that the way it's always been? Okay, a few exceptions along the way, but for the most part, that's NFL life. And that's why they say free agency has changed the league so much. But it's not true.
What many teams and analysts miss is that one or two players do not necessarily translate from 7-9 to 12-4. Ask the '92, '93 and '94 Packers, who went 9-7 all three years. And don't give me the '99 Rams and '00 Ravens as exceptions. That's what I call cyclical. Good teams go down, and teams that have been adding draft talent eventually rise. Free agency actually started in '92, but the Bills team that went to four straight Super Bowls toiled for three years until '89, when they started making their name. A few years prior to free agency.
Oh, and don't get me started on Plan B free agency, either. It was not even close. There was player movement there, but no cap and the only marquis names that moved were past their prime, to say the least. Besides, it only lasted a few years.
When it comes down to it, all it really takes when you see the wholesale changes in the league is time to get acclimated for it. Sure, some stars move to another team, but that happened prior to free agency, too. Dexter Manley moved teams in '86 to the Redskins after winning a Super Bowl for the Bears. And don't forget Eric Dickerson and Herschel Walker.
Things haven't changed all that much, it's just set up differently. Yes, every team has a chance at the beginning of the year. And things have to fall that way. For every '98 Falcons team, there's a '79 Eagles team. That's the way it was. That's the way it is. That's the way it shall be. And it's still great, isn't it?
A look around...
Miller Time
"The Bears are such a different team with Jim Miller...", bla, bla-bla, bla...bla, bla, bla. What's different about this team is the defense. It's on. While Miller does make the offense better, it has been the defense that has really taken this team to 3-1. What I don't get is how the offense could be so lackluster against the Cardinals. Sure, the Cards defense is better than expected, the Bears have enough talent to blow their way through it at some point. Then again, I thought the Rams would put up thirty against the Giants.
Good Fortune Mining
While you have to hand it to the 49ers for being 4-1 at this point, they should thank their lucky stars that the Falcons cannot make defensive adjustments in the second half. If Terrell Owens was killing me that badly, I'd put a defensive tackle right in front of him to make him run around, then I would put "punt return-like" press coverage on him. Take the flags, just don't let him get in the endzone. Losing two games in the span of five weeks in overtime to team you led comfortably both times is enough to damage your players psyche enough to call it a career.
The League's Most Prolific Offensive Machines
Wow, what a display. What a shootout. Talk about potent offenses. You would think I'm talking about the result from the New Years eve slate of the Colts and Rams game, wouldn't you? I'm talking those offensive juggernauts that played yesterday - the Bucs and Titans. Now that's a game I believed would end up with a final score of 2-0. Instead, they move up and down the field, scoring 59 total points! Either these two figured out what is ailing their offenses, or the defenses are on the decline in rapid fashion. I'm leaning towards the latter.
Minni Win
Yeah, the Vikings needed a win...any win. Even over the Lions that were coming off a toasting by the Rams. The funny thing is that they jumped all over the Lions and then barely hung on in the end. It was not a big moral victory by any stretch. Consider that the Lions lost two more defensive backs during the game, and tell me if the Vikes celebrated that one. And while I'm on it, do you think Randy Moss will still be considered the best player in the league by next season? If you think about it, he's being payed more money for plays he takes off, than for plays he works at. Great job with that contract, Red. You just gave the guy the only thing he really cared about...financial security.
It Is Alive!
Remember how the Jets offense was supposed to be so much better with those gamebreaking, upgraded receiving corps? And do you remember how they used to play poorly for three quarters last season before they came alive for incredible comebacks? And did you see yesterday's game? Talk about the Bucs never changing. Actually, I don't believe they're the same. They're getting it together, and are well worth watching. Oh, and they beat the Bucs last year...remember?
In-dy Crapper
Was Peyton Manning playing against the Florida Gators Sunday night? While Manning couldn't beat the Gators in four years, he just may have found they're equivalent in the NFL. It's kind of hard to shake that knock that you cannot win the big games, when you blow chance after chance at winning those games. Anyone who says Manning is better than Kurt Warner should have their head examined. I like Manning, but he's still at a stage where he gets rattled in the toughest of tough situations. Until he proves otherwise, he's not the best quarterback in the league.
I've Got Your Back...Up
You have to wonder how the coaching mind works for guys like Mike Holmgren. I can understand Holmgren wanting to keep his future quarterback playing through the rough times. And I can definitely understand why he sticks with Ricky Watters. What you have to wonder is if there isn't a way to make changes to keep the momentum going that he has with his back-up QB (Dilfer) and RB (Alexander). The team is by far better with those two, but Holmgren has to have a plan. Can you imagine the stress involved with that? Thinking things like, "Geez, if I could only find out Ricky was hurt more, then I could put him on IR. If it would work that way, maybe I could find a way to have Matt hurt himself." Of course, another solution would be to drop the pig-headed pride and put your best players on the field.
My Picks Last Week
Simply put, I got my lunch eaten. Talk about teams of opposite momentum. Just when you think the Bengals have reverted to being...well...the Bengals, they step up and take it to the upstart Browns. Then, the Chargers lay an egg at New England, and the Colts offense looked like the Rams. This time, that's a bad thing, which is rare. Granted, I should have known better in a few, especially the Chargers-Patriots and Jets-Dolphins. Then again, maybe not.
The funny thing is, the Bears, Saints, Rams and 49ers all probably could have lost. Maybe should have lost. But remember, good teams always find a way to win these games.
MIKE LIKES
Week Seven (Bye: Miami, San Francisco, Seattle, Oakland, Dallas):
Buffalo at Jacksonville (-8.5)
The Bills showed signs of life in their last game, and have had a bye to work on things. The Jags also had a bye, but were slipping badly before. This game could easily go either way. All signs point to Jacksonville, but I don't buy it.
Pick: Bills
Atlanta at New Orleans (-8.5)
Atlanta will probably jump out to a big lead, before succumbing to a superior opponent. Considering QB Aaron Brooks was only 14-40 passing against the Panthers, I think it could be close. The Saints are really better, and they have Ricky Williams.
Pick: Saints
Baltimore at Cleveland (No line yet)
It looks like a game that the Ravens should win, but that's what a lot of people thought when these Birds went to Cincinnati. The Ravens will likely be favored, but don't have the guns to blow out the Browns. Should be good.
Pick: Ravens
Carolina at Washington (No line yet)
I have yet to see any reason to pick the Redskins in a game. They are beat up enough defensively to help rookie Weinke.
Pick: Panthers
Chicago at Cincinnati (-1)
The Bears have tailed off some on offense, and the Bengals played to the biggest crowd ever for a Cincy sporting event. In other words, they filled the stadium. This isn't your '90's Bengals. It should be a blood bath.
Pick: Bengals
Denver at San Diego (No line yet)
A good test for the Chargers. Now they finally get to gage themselves against a contender. The Broncos have not been playing all too well, and Brian Griese's shoulder is bothering him again. The Chargers can get by if they limit mistakes and play smarter than they have the past two games.
Pick: Chargers
Green Bay (-3) at Minnesota
Favre threw three INTs at Tampa Bay and three TDs at home against the Ravens. He's on the road, so it won't be his best game. The defense will help in this one, much more, and the Vikings are not close to what they were.
Pick: Packers
Kansas City (-2.5) at Arizona
The spread appears to be pretty generous in favor of the Chiefs to me. The Cardinals have put together two pretty solid weeks, and if not for a Michael Pittman fumble, could have won the Chicago game. And remember, it was the Chiefs that lost to the Chargers last year, hence 1-15.
Pick: Cardinals
New England at Indianapolis (-10.5)
After shocking them at home, the Patriots now get to see Indy on their home field. Don't expect the same result, but it could be a tighter game than many think.
Pick: Colts
Pittsburgh at Tampa Bay (-5.5)
This game will be up to Kordell Stewart and his ability to play mistake free. I see a low scoring affair, but you never know. I think the spread is too much for sure.
Pick: Bucs
St. Louis (-6.5) at N.Y. Jets
The Rams will play much better. The Jets don't have the defense to offset "The Show's" rhythm. The Jets could do some nice things offensively, but will not put up enough to make it lop-sided.
Pick: Rams
Tennessee (-6) at Detroit
The Titans looked back on track against the Bucs, but don't believe they're all the way back yet. They will have trouble running against the Lions front four. And their defense may have trouble with an improving Lions offense. They should have enough, though.
Pick: Titans
Philadelphia at N.Y. Giants (-3)
This is always a barn burner. The Giants are not happy about losing the Rams game, but the Eagles had a bye to prepare. The Giants will stick with running more, while the Eagles do the McNabb. It will be close. The Giants have had their number, and although the Eagles can beat them, they need their home turf to do it.
Pick: Giants
Moving on...
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THINGS I KNOW:
The Packers made the Ravens realize they were happy they didn't play the Rams in the Super Bowl.
Aaron Brooks isn't having fun anymore...but he should.
The Rams don't play the Titans this year, but they have already beat them by letting them have Kevin Carter.
The Panthers job is aging George Seifer much more rapidly than the 49ers gig did.
Broncos defensive coordinator Ray Rhodes' unit should be better at stopping the run, since his team plays that Bronco backfield in practice every day.
THINGS I CAN PREDICT:
The Rams will have one more bad game, but it doesn't guarantee a loss.
QB Tom Brady will lead the league in passing, TDs and wins, and will win the MVP...in 2006.
When Cris Carter does finally announce his retirement, Daunte Culpepper will say, "Good. Will you take Moss with you?"
Trent Dilfer will never get the respect he deserves, but will be happy with the money he's made.
Charlie Batch will make Marty Morninwheg and Matt Millen feel stupid for giving that third round pick away for Ty Detmer by midseason. He won't make them look stupid, though, as they have already done that themselves.
Mike owns and publishes SkillPositions.Com, along with a big, expensive, and talented staff. Don't use this work without permission in writing. Mike has been known as the world's only living heart donor. He also thinks morals are paintings on walls, and scruples are money in Russia.
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