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thoughts and observations |
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WEEK FOURTEEN REVIEW
Allright, I have a question for everyone. Who was the first person to call Norv Turner an offensive guru? Whoever it was, maybe they overrated him. I have watched him run an offense for several years now, and I really have questions.
First of all, if you think about his days in Dallas, you have to remember Jimmy Johnson had his hands throughout that team. So how much was Turner really in control of the offense? Looking back, I'm thinking not as much as once thought. Consider that the Cowboys offense didn't lose a beat after Turner left for Washington, and it appears fairly obvious.
Next, let's take a look at Turner's regime in D.C. The best record Turner put in as a head coach was 10-6 in 1999. He had two other winning records, a 9-7 season and an 8-7-1 season. You have to give him credit for the '99 season, as the Redskins turned in the second ranked offense. That was also the year that Stephen Davis had a breakout season. The team was mostly a running team. Of course the defense let the team down often.
Of all the years Turner lasted with the Redskins, he turned out one great offense. Okay, '98 was not a bad offense, but the point is, how good of a coach is he really? More than likely, you can remember the Redskins under his command. Did his offenses really ever seem special to you? Me neither.
So, why am I going ranting on Turner this week? Have you watched the Chargers offense? It's terrible. It's ran wrong. Look at the game against the Raiders...a game the Chargers should have run. The Chargers spend a high pick on a very talented LaDainian Tomlinson, and the team barely uses him. A back like that should never get less than 20 carries a game, unless the team is down by 14. In the fourth quarter, Tomlinson is a big part of the drive that brings the Chargers to the Oakland 12 with a first and five. Tomlinson carries seven yards to the five. Tomlinson carries three yards to the two. That's second and goal on the two. The next play, Flutie backs up and throws the ball to a linebacker and safety. The linebacker runs the ball back to midfield. Why doesn't Turner call Tomlinson's number again?
Believe me, I understand that the Chargers offensive line is porous. I also understand that Flutie is way over the hill, and had already thrown two interceptions. The ball he threw that was picked off looked like it would have hit the feet of the receiver even had the two players not been standing in front of him. So if you have to point a finger, you should point it at Turner. That was just plain stupid. Yet he calls about every game like that. The Raiders have a poor run defense, but Turner didn't opt to wear them down. He opted to allow Flutie to throw away the game.
That's why I'm down on Turner. You have a gifted player, who should be given the chance to carry the offense down the stretch. 17 carries is not carrying the load. Turner should be dropped down to a running backs coach, just so he can remember what gave him his best offense in D.C., and Dallas. Otherwise, you cannot convince me the guy is special.
A look around...
Gaining Momentum
Teams are playoff posturing, and the ones that impressed me Sunday, were the Steelers, Bears and Niners. All three stepped up, and throttled good teams. With three weeks left in the regular season, these clubs may be starting to peak. The Steelers should get home field advantage quickly. The Bears will likely earn a first round bye, and the Niners should have a home field playoff game. The Steelers are probably a Super Bowl team. The Bears and Niners are no match for the Rams, but stranger things have happened.
Losing Momentum
Packers/Oakland/Dolphins I really haven't been sold all season on the Packers and Dolphins, and while the Raiders won, they haven't played the best of competition. All three will likely struggle in the playoffs. The Dolphins are in danger of losing their division. After the big Monday night win, you would think they would put up a better effort against the Niners. The Packers may have blown their shot. The Raiders have clinched their division, and may still get a first round bye, but they have a lot of holes. In other words, I need some convincing.
Footbrawl
I'm going on the line here for the fans in Cleveland. Sure, the replay call was right. What was wrong is that the Browns ran a play before they reviewed it. That's a big no-no, and I can see how that would light up some people. What the NFL should be thankful for is that it didn't turn into a European soccer match. Worse things have happened at sporting events. It was wrong to throw the bottles, but when word came out that they were plastic bottles, it made a big difference. People are passionate about their teams, and that needs to be remembered before you change a possible outcome of a game outside the way the rules are set up. The refs did that, and they were lucky they weren't attacked in a harder way.
Worst Team Update
Well, the Bills just lost another close one, keeping them in the derby. The Lions are off the schnide. The Panthers had a bye. We've got the Lions and Panthers now locked up with one win. The Bills are at two. Who will get worst record? The Bills have another advantage in that they beat the Panthers. The Lions have a disadvantage. If you look at the Chargers of last year, once they finally won a game, they let down and were clocked through the rest of the schedule. That could play with the Lions. Soon, I may have to start looking at the draft lottery here, and break it down.
Who's Running The Show
There was a lot of mumbling and grumbling when the Seahawks named Ricky Watters the starter over Shaun Alexander, especially in fantasy circles. But Watters played very well, and probably gave Alexander some rest for the stretch run. The problem was that Watters hurt his ankle later in the game, so we may not have a controversy anymore. It should be interesting.
Don't Look Now, But..
The Patriots are still moving forward. Next week, be sure to watch the showdown with the Dolphins. The Patriots still have a bye ahead of them, which means the Dolphins would have to lose again even if the Patriots beat them, but it can happen. I don't think anyone really wants any part of the Patriots right now, and that will especially be the case when the playoffs roll around.
Parity...Yeah, Right
Speaking of worst teams, have you noticed the standings? There's all those .500 clubs. No, wait, there's only one .500 team, which is Denver, at 7-7. It's actually an odd week, so it's hard to be holding even in record. Actually, there's seven teams in the AFC over .500. Oh, and seven in the NFC. Three of those teams can be .500 with a loss. The rest are riding pretty. And if you think about it, six of those seven teams in each conference will go to the playoffs. Seems pretty much like it always has. Is there parity in the league? Not really. The cream always rises to the top.
Quick Joke
My mother is a big Chiefs fan...poor thing. Anyway, she forwarded me a joke and told me to put it in this week's article. So, to please her here it is:
What do the Chiefs and Billy Graham have in common?
They can both make 60,000 people stand up and shout "JESUS CHRIST!"
MIKE LIKES
Week Fourteen (Bye: Denver):
Miami at New England (-3)
This is going to be a dandy. It's getting colder in New England and Miami is a warm weather team. That spells problems. Then you have the way the Patriots are playing, and the way the Dolphins played in Frisco. I think the Patriots will really give them problems.
Pick: Mel Gibson starred in a film of the same name
Philadelphia at San Francisco (-3)
This should be another tough game. The Eagles are undefeated on the road, but the Niners may be the best team they will play. The Eagles have the defense to cause problems, so this could come down to the Niners defense against McNabb and Company. It's hard to believe this would be very high scoring, because the Niners will run if given the chance.
Pick: Digging for gold
Tennessee at Oakland (-6.5)
I think that point spread is a little high. The Titans ran well Sunday with Skip Hicks getting a shot. If they stay that course, it could be a long day for the Raiders defense. The Raiders will not have an easy go against the Titans defense, no matter how many injuries they have. It's going to be interesting. Consider this one to have a moderate amount of scoring.
Pick: Heralding from Rocky Top
New Orleans at Tampa Bay (No Line Yet)
This is written before the Monday night affair, but no matter how that's gone, the Saints will have a tough time traveling on a short week to face anyone. The last time they played the Rams, the Saints blew one to the Jets. Conversely, the Bucs are a shell of themselves, and Brad Johnson will probably get hit a lot in this one. I still like the Saints offense here.
Pick: Having a Mardi Gras on the pirate ship
St. Louis at Carolina (No Line Yet)
Gee, this ought to be a close one. The Rams will likely use the same formula they used the first time the two met. A lot of running. The Rams will pass, and will probably perform better there than the first one. I smell a blowout. Oh, and the spread should be a big one if one comes out.
Pick: Dodge trucks
San Diego at Kansas City (-3.5)
The Chargers will mix in some scatter-brained offense with some solid defense in this one. Priest Holmes will probably run for 150 yards. It will not be a blowout, but the Chiefs have the wherewithal to keep the Chargers on their heels. If the Chargers get a good game from Flutie, it could be tough for the Chiefs. But Flutie only plays a good game every five games, and he's not on schedule.
Pick:
Seattle at New York Giants (-4)
The Giants outlasted a tough Cardinals team last Saturday, and the Seahawks took it to the Cowboys. This is one of those games that the Seahawks conservative gameplans catch up to them. The Giants should have a major advantage with a colder home field, and a defense that can stop the run.
Pick: The team Fran Tarkenton once played for (Hint: So did LT)
Buffalo at Atlanta (-4)
The Falcons have been reeling as of late, but the Bills have all year. This is a game that the Bills can win. It should come down to the Falcons offense against the Bills defense. Look for it to be a little more interesting than at first glance. The Falcons are really better right now, but it could go either way.
Pick: William Cody's team
Chicaco (-2.5) at Washington
Don't believe for a second that the Redskins will go quietly into that goodnight. This will be a tough game. The Bears will benefit from being able to stop the run, and will have to be careful against the passing game. The Bears should have enough offense to put up enough on the Redskins, but it won't come in bunches. There is probably a lot of twists this one can take.
Pick: Home of Wrigley
Cincinnati at Baltimore (No Line Yet)
You wouldn't think the Bengals would have a chance, but they have hung in most of their games as of late. The problem is they cannot get any production out of their quarterback. Kitna was jerked, and Akili Smith goes in, looks decent, and then gets hurt. That's the Bengals season. The Ravens are still in the playoff chase, and will not play this lightly. The Bengals won the first one, and the Ravens are still mad.
Pick: Poe's town
Cleveland at Green Bay (-8)
The Browns have had it tough all season. Blown games, lost opportunities, injured players...you name it. Now, they get to go to Lambeau Field and face a Packers team that is not real happy. For some reason, I get the feeling the Browns will hang around in this one for awhile. Eventually, the Packers will get on track. It's getting cold up there, which brings out Brett Favre's best ball.
Pick: Curly's team
Detroit at Pittsburgh (No Line Yet)
Well, the Lions finally pulled one off. There's bound to be a letdown. Then again, even if they were a .500 team they could get killed by the Steelers. This one probably will not be close. Not even close to being close.
Pick: The helmets with the sticker on one side
Dallas at Arizona (-3.5)
This is a pretty evenly matched game. The biggest difference is the quarterbacks, and their experience. Then again, Jake Plummer is capable of playing like a rookie. Both teams play hard every week, and anything goes in this game actually. The Cardinals can win games they shouldn't, and you have to like that going up against a team that may not be as good as them.
Pick: The team originally from Chicago
Jacksonville at Minnesota (-3.5)
We now know that the Vikings can lose to anyone, and that the Jaguars can blow games pretty easily. While the Vikings should move the ball with ease against the Jags, the Jags offense should be able to do a lot against the Viking defense. This could be a pretty good game, and closely fought, but eventually the Vikings should be able to pull away.
Pick: The Jesse Ventura's
New York Jets at Indianapolis (-2.5)
The Jets are in the playoff hunt, and the Colts season is virtually over. However, this is a dangerous game for the Colts. The Colts pulled away in the first game on opening day. Things have changed. This should be a tough game for the Jets to win, and will go a long way towards their playoff readiness. The Colts will just have to be careful of turning the ball over. When it comes down to it, the Jets will use Curtis Martin to the extreme, and it should pay dividends.
Pick: Think Joe Willie
Moving on...
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THINGS I KNOW:
The Ravens are wondering what they didn't see in Priest Holmes.
All the good games this week are on Saturday.
The Tampa Bay defense is a thing of the past.
I hope the Bears and 49ers meet in the playoffs.
I now understand why Danny Boy Snider wanted to get rid of Norv Turner. Snider is still a dumbass, though.
THINGS I CAN PREDICT:
He'll make it through the season, but Doug Flutie is playing on borrowed time.
The Saints will nudge out the Bucs for the last playoff spot.
It will be twenty years before a matchup between the Chargers and Bengals will feature both teams undefeated, as in week two.
No team will post any kind of challenge to the Rams in the NFC during the playoffs.
The NFL will make a quick rules change for the AFC and decide that only Pittsburgh deserves a bye week for the playoffs.
Mike owns and publishes SkillPositions.Com, along with a big, expensive, and talented staff. Don't use this work without permission in writing. Mike has been known as the world's only living heart donor. He also thinks morals are paintings on walls, and scruples are money in Russia.
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