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AFC South |
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Thoughts And Observations |
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Preseason Ponderings
I wanted to start this article this week by saying "thank you" to all of you who have purchased my fantasy previews. The response has been real nice. I apologize to those of you who are not familiar with paying for things on the Internet with PayPal. I must tell you, though, it's a great system, and we went with it because my other company - Draco Digital - works with them in a lot of ways. Anyways, I appreciate your support. Now onto the real football matters...
The preseason never really tells us much about the coming fantasy season. The signs are there, you just have to know what signs to look for. The real preseason games that will have any meaning is the second and third (not counting Hall of Fame weekend games). The first week, coaches want to look at where their team is at, without risking injuries to starters. The second week gets a better look at the starters, but it is getting closer to cut time, so they want to look at the lower players. The third week is the best time to see where their starters are at, but since they have cuts the following Monday, they have to use the late first, and second half to get final grades. The last week coaches are resting their players for the regular season.
Then, you have coaches hiding their playbooks, so they will not tip their hand. The only value you can gather is watching players who are in with the first team, and yet not quite designated a starter. You'll see a running back or receiver come on at that time. I remember watching Falcons receiver Michael Haynes in his second preseason in 1992. He was a force with the first team, and I kept tabs on him during our draft. We had an 18-round draft with 12 fantasy teams, and I took him on my last pick. He flat out tore up that season (I believe he had 12 TDs), and was a second round pick the following year. Those steals are rare, but there are a few to watch every year.
Some of the other things are with changes. Like, what you see going on in Washington. Where the offenses are overall. Those have good indicators of things to come, but only as strategy. The personnel area still is hard to gather.
Let's proceed to see some of the signs, and other preseason notables.
A look around...
Wither Saints???
The Saints could have a ton of firepower on offense. Deuce McAllister looks great, and actually weighs more than Ricky Williams did last year, which should ease some of your minds on all the durability questions. There are a few things that could hurt this team this season. Rookie receiver Daunte Stallworth is having hamstring problems, and considering the past injury problems to starter Jerome Pathon, there could be some problems coming in this area. I have to wonder if Stallworth's rookie year will wind up like Koren Robinson's did last season. Then there's the problem of...
For Every Marshall Faulk there is an Aaron Brooks
Brooks is unhappy about his contract, and although he does deserve more he's telling everyone who will listen about the problem. This could really sidetrack a player who really struggled down the stretch last season. He should shut his pie hole, and think of his team. One of the problems is he wants an awful lot for one solid half year, and a spotty second year. I wonder how much of a distraction he will allow it to be with the team. Maybe he could look at players like Orlando Pace and Jimmy Smith. Pace is in the last year of his rookie contract, and has vowed not to let it affect him. He'll get his money and he knows it. So will Brooks. Smith still has a few years left on his contract, and in most cases I would say shut up and play for what you signed for, but the team did tell him they would give him a better deal, and has reneged. Still, Smith has tried to keep it out of the public eye now. Keep an eye on Brooks, because if he's talking to everyone with an ear in preseason, just think how it will get as the year goes on.
Disappointing Team
This is not because of their preseason performances so far, but I wondered seriously about the Raiders when Jon Gruden left. The entire offensive unit is getting long in the teeth. Gannon, Garner, Wheatley, Rice and Brown are all well past prime NFL ages, and the offensive line has a couple of older players. In fact, there is a lot of age on the defensive side, as well. I really think they may be the team that drops down a notch. Sorry Raiders fans, but the window may have closed.
NFL Means "No Friends League"
I'm guessing Steve Spurrier will not be well liked in this league. One preseason game, and he was already frowned on by the other coach. It's a good thing he doesn't care. By season's end, the only other coach I can see Spurrier getting along with, and liking, will be Mike Martz, the other offensive madman. The Redskins may not be truly great on offense this year, but they will have their games. Whoever starts at quarterback will likely be a good fantasy prospect.
Miami Advice
I just still don't buy that crap I keep hearing about Ricky Williams being the missing piece to the Dolphins. I've said it before, but if Williams has a nice season, he will probably have numbers like Lamar Smith did in 2000, and that didn't get them past the second round of the playoffs. He helps the team over last year, but I don't see a Super march with this team. I've been wrong before. I just don't believe the hype.
Brown Out
Call me crazy (I know many of you do), but I think that if the Browns are truly willing to trade receiver Kevin Johnson, they're just stupid. Johnson is a proven receiver, and has a great rapport with quarterback Tim Couch. Why do you trade your best receiver when there is no one that is proven behind him? Talk about setting your offense back. Just because a guy does not fit your "ideal" mold, does not mean you should let your ego tell you it's easy to overcome. If this happens, then you can move the Browns' passing game back down a few notches.
Noisy Players
There are some players making noise on both the good and bad side of the spectrum. Here is a team by team:
AFC East
New York Jets - Laverneus Coles is the most underrated WR in the league. Santana Moss looks special, too.
Buffalo Bills - Josh Reed is making Peerless Price a better player.
Miami Dolphins - TE Randy McMichael is making noise as a pass-catching receiver.
New England Patriots - Christian Fauria is holding the starting TE job by a stretch.
AFC North
Baltimore Ravens - Jamal Lewis appears to be fine, and is running well.
Cincinnati Bengals - T.J. Houshmandzedeh is starting in Michael Wesbrook's absense.
Cleveland Browns - William Green is the starter despite Jamel White being the star of camp.
Pittsburgh Steelers - RBs Jerome Bettis and Amos Zereoue should be watched with a leary eye.
AFC South
Houston Texans - Rookie RB Jonathon Wells should push James Allen for the starting role.
Indianapolis Colts - Back-up RB Dominic Rhodes hurt his knee and it could be bad. Watch Benjamin Gay if so.
Jacksonville Jaguars - WRs Bobby Shaw and Pat Johnson are both coming on. Shaw should start.
Tennessee Titans - The offense appears healthy, and has opened up as reported. Watch WR Justin McCareins.
AFC West
Denver Broncos - RB Terrell Davis may be done. Clinton Portis will emerge over Olandis Gary and be great.
Kansas City Chiefs - Eddie Kennison is the starter opposite Johnny Morton, and appears locked in there.
Oakland Raiders - WR Jerry Porter appears as though he will see plenty of time. He has a future.
San Diego ChargersÊ- Rookie WR Reche Caldwell has come on, and should see a lot of action.
NFC East
Dallas Cowboys - QB Quincy Carter is playing well, which could bode very well for WR Joey Galloway.
New York Giants - Everyone is loving rookie TE Jeremy Shockey, and he should be an immediate threat.
Philadelphia Eagles - RB Dorsey Levens looks rejuvenated, but it's still unknown how he and Duce Staley work.
Washington Redskins - Danny Wuerffel could become the starter with a good first team performance.
NFC North
Chicago Bears - Jim Miller is the starter, and the passing game will be better.
Detroit Lions - Rookie Joey Harrington is the team's best QB. Rookie RB Luke Staley is gone for the year.
Green Bay Packers - Rookie WR Javon Walker could contribute sooner than expect with WR injuries.
Minnesota Vikings - WR D'Wayne Bates is playing well and getting ahead of the injured Derrick Alexander.
NFC South
Atlanta Falcons - TE Alge Crumpler could be a big surprise this year, and be Michael Vick's go-to guy.
Carolina Panthers - Rookie RB DeShaun Foster is pushing to be the starter very quickly, and looks good.
New Orleans Saints - TE David Sloan will be a big contributor, especially if WR injuries hold up.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers - The QB competition is far from over here, but RB Michael Pittman is well established.
NFC West
Arizona Cardinals - The team thinks second year WR Bryan Gilmore could have a breakout season.
St. Louis Rams - The team is working WR Terrence Wilkens a lot to get him up to speed, and he's responding.
San Francisco 49ers - WR Cedric Wilson is making noise in camp, and could work into the offense more.
Seattle Seahawks - Don't expect QB Matt Hasselback to do a lot in Trent Dilfer's absense. He's a headcase now.
Moving on...
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THINGS I KNOW OR WONDER:
Did Butch Davis get his ego while with the Cowboys, or the Miami Hurricanes?
Do other stars get jealous of Marshall Faulk not having to play in the preseason?
If Terrell Davis retires now, he's still worthy of the Hall of Fame.
Will Philadelphia have a big party to celebrate Randall Cunningham retiring as an Eagle? Didn't think so.
The Bucs lost a lot of draft picks, but they will have the last laugh over Jon Gruden.
THINGS I CAN PREDICT:
It will be a long season for the Bears playing their home games in Champaign, Illinois.
The Redskins will start like gangbusters until there is more tape to prepare for them. They will drop some after a few weeks, but still be pretty good.
Speaking of deals, the Saints will be the winners over the Ricky Williams trade, as well.
Drew Bledsoe will deliver in Buffalo, but Travis Henry will not match the output at his position.
The Bengals will be a suprise team this season. They will make the playoffs, and make some noise there. Then, in the offseason, the team will jetison it's best players so they may retain their tradition of being millions under the salary cap.
Mike owns and publishes SkillPositions.Com, along with a big, expensive, and talented staff. Don't use this work without permission in writing. Mike has been known as the world's only living heart donor. He also thinks morals are paintings on walls, and scruples are money in Russia.
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